Clemson/South Carolina Prediction

Ah, rivalry week. There's nothing quite like you. It's the one time out of the year when all pretense of civility between opposing teams vanishes. On that one day, you're either in one camp or the other. No grey areas. Bowl bids and conference titles are thrown out the window, only to be remembered after the scoreboard goes black. This is the big game. For state-side dominance. Superiority. Bragging rites. The pail. The bucket. The trophy.

I'm among those who hate the very idea of Clemson and South Carolina, along with most other big-name rival schools, playing their season finales on Thanksgiving weekend. The theory is to generate national exposure. I say that will come only when both teams consistently generate note-worthy seasons that people outside the Palmetto State will take notice of. That hasn't been the case more often than not. 2000 might have been the last year both Clemson and USC were ranked or sported impressive win-loss records. Michigan and Ohio State is a big draw for a reason. The whole #1 vs. #2 thing. They are big-name schools, and they've got the records to prove it.

But nevertheless, Thanksgiving weekend it is. Shouldn't change anything, though. Beautiful Death Valley will still be at a fevered squall as Carolinians far and wide, neighbor and friend, newcomer and vet, come together for the annual Battle for Palmetto Pride, as the Fighting Tigers face off against their nefarious nemesis from down south: the Gamecocks of South Carolina. Round II between Tommy's Jedi Knights and the evil Sith of Darth Spurrier.

Clemson fans have reason to worry, though, as the Force hasn't quite been up to par in recent weeks. Solo and Skywalker - um, James Davis and C.J. Spiller - have each experienced off days since that rousing triumph over the neanderthal Chewies of Georgia Tech. The offensive line has lost the chip on their shoulder. Proctor needs a big game desperately. Meanwhile, the chickens look more like X-wing star fighters these days. Ever since Blake Mitchell returned to the starting QB position, their offense went from anemic to powerhouse seemingly overnight. Sydney Rice is a huge threat again. So is Kenny McKinley. And Cory Boyd. No telling where Syvelle Newton may line up. Could be anywhere from cornerback to tailback to wide receiver to quarterback. Mr. Do-It-All.

Needless to say, I'm less optimistic about this game than I was a month ago. We've lost the aura of invincibility built up against creampuffs like Florida Atlantic, UNC, and La. Tech. The book is out on how to stop the Tiger offense. USC, after being shelled early in the year behind a patchwork offensive line, is hitting its peak and looks like a team on fire. Their own mistakes are all that kept them from beating the likes of Arkansas, Tennessee, and Florida. Poor Middle Tennessee State took the brunt of their frustration last week. Not good news for us Tigers hoping to catch them reeling as usual from the Orange Crush. They'll be ready for us. They're overdue for a win.

Plus, it's Spurrier. Darth Visor. Say what you will about him, but the man is still a brilliant coach. What he's done with a USC squad drowning in question marks at the beginning of the year is nothing short of amazing. Don't let their 6-5 record mislead you. Sure, they've looked questionable at times (*coughWoffordcough*) but we prefer to remember what they did to Florida in the Swamp. Came within a blocked FG of overtime. Possibly an upset.

So it's going to take more than our history in the rivalry (63-36-4. Four in a row. Eight of the last nine. 14 of the last 18. In case any lurking Cocks need a reminder), the mystique of Death Valley, Howard's Rock, the orange pants, and the gods of Howard, Bradley, and Phillips to pull us through. We'll need every weapon in the arsenal. It's going to be a grudge match. I'm already bracing myself for that.

OFFENSE

Clemson: Bread and butter remains the running game. Davis and Spiller, as previously stated, need to return to the dynamic duo they once were. Reggie Merriweather needs to get some carries, and with it being Senior Day, I look for that to happen. Proctor's inexperience has been exposed and he has not looked comfortable sitting in the pocket, but he finally threw deep against NC State and tried out some new tricks. Chansi Stuckey and Tyler Grisham are our go-to receivers, but Aaron Kelly also has shown a propensity for coming through in the clutch. Offensive line misses Roman Fry, no doubt, but they're still the strong back of the team. With Brandon Cannon returning from a minor injury, he'll get some more reps with Chris McDuffie in filling the void that Fry left.

USC: Amazing what a difference a QB change makes. But that's what Spurrier is known for. Blake Mitchell is a classic drop-back passer, and his downfield vision has improved dramatically since Miss. State and Georgia. His number-one target, All-America candidate Sydney Rice, is now joined by a number two: Kenny McKinley. I've watched him quietly turn into a capable receiver who can make difficult catches and gain lots of yards on contact. Cory Boyd is a rumbler; he'll steamroll you if you try to arm-tackle him. Mike Davis has shown improvement the more times he's touched the ball. Running game has been inconsistent, however, with an average offensive line.

Honestly, it's hard to say who has the better offense at this point. It will depend on whether either team plays to its strengths with success or adjusts accordingly if that plan fails. If Clemson softens Carolina up enough with the vertical pass to unleash their rushing attack, they win. If the Gamecocks plug up the running lanes and get plenty of heat on Proctor, they win. Spurrier tends to be the better halftime adjuster and the one more willing to make a change if things aren't going right, but will it be enough to contain Davis and Spiller? And possibly Merriweather?

Edge: Even

DEFENSE

Clemson: Vic Koenning's zone defense gives up big chunks of yardage, but usually prevents TDs or big plays. Against USC's playmakers, that won't be simple. Look for more snaps with Gaines Adams moving inside, and Phillip Merling and Ricky Sapp bringing pressure from the corners. Nick Watkins is a terror at deflecting passes thrown at or near the line of scrimmage. Antonio Clay is showing Tiger fans why he was such a big-name recruit as he and Maurice Nelson have stepped in for the injured Anthony Waters and prevented a significant drop-off. Duane Coleman loves to hit people in the secondary; he might not always read the play correctly, but if the QB picks on him, the wideout better be ready to take a shot. Everyone knows Michael Hamlin and C.J. Gaddis as the duo that shut down Mr. Calvin Johnson. They've got their work cut out for them against Rice and McKinley.

USC: Casper & Jasper. Now there's a catchy tandem. The McBrinkley boys have made a name for themselves at defensive end and middle linebacker, frustrating the fool out of Florida QB Chris Leak two weeks ago. Jordan Lindsey joins Casper in bringing the heat from the corners. Fred Bennett is rock-steady at cornerback and looks to be an All-SEC candidate. But the big news on this side is the apparent success of Syvelle Newton's switch to free safety. I was amazed at how well he picked up the new position; it's hard to tell how much is mechanics and how much is his raw athleticism, but he left me impressed. Carlos Thomas has made plays, but is often prone to overpursue and jump out of position. I don't remember if he played last week against Middle Tennessee State.

People still say Clemson's secondary is a questionable spot, but few QBs have had success passing on them. As I see it, the main thing holding back USC's defense is recurring mistakes. The Arkansas game featured a long TD pass that two USC defenders had covered, but ended up bumping into each other. The key for Clemson will be to get off the field on third down to sustain energy. Despite impressive strides made against the Gators, Carolina has been vulnerable to the pass. Look for Proctor to follow Erik Ainge's blueprint with a few bootlegs under center.

Edge: Clemson

SPECIAL TEAMS

Clemson: Kickoffs have become more strategic with Cole Chason pooching kicks toward the sidelines to ward off huge returns, which our coverage team have been prone to surrender. His punts have been consistently better this year, but as I always say, the best news out of your punter is when you don't need him. Jad Dean's FG woes appear to be gone for good, as he is back in top form with a shored-up protection unit. Jacoby Ford is always a threat to break a big one, but has made some bad decisions with fielding punts. C.J. Spiller doesn't always have the best hands.

USC: Ryan Succop, as a Tiger fan, I sympathize with you. Three blocked kicks against Florida is a major cause for concern. Sure can't blame it on the lack of a special teams coach (so leave Tommy alone about that). At least two of those kicks were on Ryan, as he was slow getting up to the ball during the snap. Before that, Succop was a weapon, juggling punts, FGs, and kickoff duties with ease. Cory Boyd, again, won't go down on first tackle, so kickoff coverage had better get three or four hats on him. Mike West has more in the way of breakaway speed.

Before the Florida game, I would have given the edge to Carolina on Succop alone. But it seems he's inherited Dean's earlier problems with kick protection. Will it affect his performance if the game's on the line? Hard to say. And while Boyd can shake off the initial hit, Clemson's multiple speedsters are bigger threats to turn the tide of battle with a touchdown.

Edge: Clemson

COACHING

Clemson: Tommy hasn't let the loss of an ACC title shot and BCS bowl deter him, keeping the team focused on what's left to accomplish. Say what you want about his coaching, but a major thing in his favor is that he gets this rivalry. He knows its importance, and it's the one game you can guarantee he's got his players fired up about.

USC: Spurrier to Miami? Not likely, but we'll wait and see after the game. Naturally, he's not going to invest any truth in that rumor when so much is at stake for his squad. USC needs this game more than Clemson to cement a bowl trip. Forget what he says about winning the SEC; they want to beat Clemson more than anything right now.

I can't stand him, but I have to tip my hat to the ol' Ball Coach. When Cock 'n Fire sputtered earlier this year, he broke the norm, put Syvelle at QB, and went to a run-first mentality that often worked. Now that the pass attack has awakened with a fury, he's got a lot of cards in the deck, and the mastermind to employ them skillfully. If this comes down to who makes the best game-time adjustments, Spurrier wins, no contest.

Edge: USC

OVERALL

Well, I've broken down the game, looked at all the stats, intangibles, and other data sets that get thrown out the window when these two rivals clash. And yet again - I'm scared to make a prediction.

Last week, I brought in my bichon Izzy, out of total desperation, to predict the NC State game because I didn't know which Tigers would show up, being the Jekyl/Hyde bunch that they are. And wouldn't you know, the little rat - er, darling came out a winner on her first try.

And so once again, despite my painstaking analysis, I find my hands tied. And I turn the game prediction over to my new good luck charm, Izzy. C'mere, girl!

Blech! Watch the face, Izzy.

All right, girl. It's up to you. We're gonna do this a bit different from last time. Clemson vs. South Carolina. Who's going to win? We'll say one puppy kiss for Carolina. Two puppy kisses for Clemson.

IZZY SEZ: *lick lick*
Clemson 35
South Carolina 28

GO TIGERS!!!